A Double-Edged Sword: Quality and Credibility of Colon Cancer Screening Content on YouTube.

Introduction Colorectal cancer (CRC) remains a significant public health challenge globally, with its pathogenesis involving the transformation of benign adenomas into malignant carcinomas. Despite advancements in screening and early detection significantly improving outcomes, the rise of digital platforms like YouTube for disseminating health information presents new challenges. Concerns over the accuracy and reliability of content underline the necessity for rigorous evaluation of these digital health education tools. Methods Our study was conducted at Nassau University Medical Center, East Meadow, New York. We meticulously analyzed YouTube videos on "colon cancer screening awareness," employing strict selection criteria to ensure both relevance and quality, focusing on English-language content with pertinent audio. Videos were evaluated for their quantitative and qualitative attributes-views, subscriber counts, likes/dislikes, comments, and content type, classifying them as scholarly or personal. We assessed video credibility through scientific accuracy using the DISCERN instrument, Global Quality Score (GQS), and Patient Education Materials Assessment Tool (PEMAT), ensuring consistency in quality and reliability evaluation among seven researchers via the intraclass correlation coefficient. These tools - DISCERN for assessing reliability and quality, GQS for evaluating overall quality, and PEMAT for understandability and actionability - facilitated a comprehensive evaluation framework. Our analysis, leveraging descriptive and inferential statistics, scrutinized differences in content quality between academic and private institutions, employing t-tests to identify statistically significant disparities. The study utilized Microsoft Excel (version 16.73, Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington, United States) and IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 29.0 (released 2022; IBM Corp., Armonk, New York, United States). for robust data processing and analysis, confirming the educational value and trustworthiness of the examined YouTube content. Results Our study of 156 YouTube videos on educational content, split between academic (68 videos) and private sources (88 videos), revealed significant quality differences. Using the DISCERN, PEMAT, and GQS metrics, academic videos consistently outperformed private ones, with significant margins: DISCERN (54.61 vs. 34.76), PEMAT (3.02 vs. 2.11), and GQS (3.90 vs. 2.02), supported by low p-values indicating a statistically significant superiority. These findings suggest that the source of content-academic versus private-plays a crucial role in determining the quality and reliability of educational materials on platforms like YouTube, highlighting the academic sector's commitment to higher educational standards. Conclusion The study emphasizes the critical role of credible sources in enhancing the quality of health education content on YouTube, particularly concerning CRC screening. The superiority of academic institutions in providing high-quality content suggests a need for viewers to critically assess the source of information. It also calls for enhanced regulatory oversight and measures to ensure the accuracy and reliability of health information online.

Understanding the Landscape: The Emergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI), ChatGPT, and Google Bard in Gastroenterology.

Introduction Artificial intelligence (AI) integration in healthcare, specifically in gastroenterology, has opened new avenues for enhanced patient care and medical decision-making. This study aims to assess the reliability and accuracy of two prominent AI tools, ChatGPT 4.0 and Google Bard, in answering gastroenterology-related queries, thereby evaluating their potential utility in medical settings. Methods The study employed a structured approach where typical gastroenterology questions were input into ChatGPT 4.0 and Google Bard. Independent reviewers evaluated responses using a Likert scale and cross-referenced them with guidelines from authoritative gastroenterology bodies. Statistical analysis, including the Mann-Whitney U test, was conducted to assess the significance of differences in ratings. Results ChatGPT 4.0 demonstrated higher reliability and accuracy in its responses than Google Bard, as indicated by higher mean ratings and statistically significant p-values in hypothesis testing. However, limitations in the data structure, such as the inability to conduct detailed correlation analysis, were noted. Conclusion The study concludes that ChatGPT 4.0 outperforms Google Bard in providing reliable and accurate responses to gastroenterology-related queries. This finding underscores the potential of AI tools like ChatGPT in enhancing healthcare delivery. However, the study also highlights the need for a broader and more diverse assessment of AI capabilities in healthcare to leverage their potential in clinical practice fully.

A robust and validated integrated prognostic index for defining risk groups in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia: an EWALL collaborative study.

ABSTRACT: Risk stratification is crucial to the successful treatment of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Although numerous risk factors have been identified, an optimal prognostic model for integrating variables has not been developed. We used individual patient data from 4 contemporary academic national clinical trials, UKALL14, NILG-ALL10/07, GIMEMA-LAL1913, and PETHEMA-ALL-HR2011, to generate and validate the European Working Group for Adult ALL prognostic index (EWALL-PI), which is based on white blood cell count, genetics, and end of induction minimal residual disease (MRD). Individual patient risk scores were calculated for 778 patients aged 15 to 67 years in complete remission using the validated UKALL-PI formula, applying minor modifications to reflect differences between pediatric and adult ALL. Per-trial analysis revealed that EWALL-PI correlated with relapse and death. Regression analysis revealed that each unit increase in EWALL-PI increased the risk of relapse or death by ∼30% with no evidence of heterogeneity across trials or patient subgroups. EWALL-PI-defined risk models outperformed the stratification algorithms used by each trial. Threshold analysis revealed an EWALL-PI threshold that divided patients with B cell and T cell into standard (EWALL-PI <2.50) and high (EWALL-PI ≥2.50) risk groups, respectively. Per-trial analysis showed that patients at high risk had a significantly increased relapse rate and inferior survival compared with patients with standard risk (subdistribution hazard ratio for relapse, ranged from 1.85 to 3.28; hazard ratio for death, 1.73 to 3.03). Subgroup analysis confirmed the robustness of these risk groups by sex, age, white blood cell count, and lineage. In conclusion, we validated an integrated risk model across 4 independent adult ALL clinical trials, demonstrating its utility defining clinically relevant risk groups.

An Adult With Undifferentiated Embryonal Sarcoma of the Liver: A Case Report of a Rare Encounter.

Undifferentiated embryonal sarcoma of the liver (UESL) is a rare, aggressive tumor mainly found in children but can also appear in adults. Its diagnosis in adults remains a conundrum; it is often identified late due to its non-specific symptoms and resemblance to benign lesions. A comprehensive treatment regimen involving surgical intervention, chemotherapy, and possibly radiation significantly boosts survival rates. Imaging often yields inconclusive outcomes, further complicating the diagnostic process. Here, we report the case of a 28-year-old female diagnosed with UESL, emphasizing the need for timely intervention. Undifferentiated embryonal sarcoma of the liver requires differentiation from a variety of hepatic tumors in adults. Though there are no distinctive characteristics to differentiate UESL from other hepatic masses, its morphology and immunohistochemical profiles significantly vary. The staging often reveals UESL as a large, well-defined mass with the potential for diverse differentiation. Its prognosis has been considerably improved with the advent of multidisciplinary treatment. Surgical resection remains a cornerstone, often combined with chemotherapy. While pediatric cases exhibit better overall survival rates than adults, outcomes heavily depend on the chosen treatment regimen. A combination of chemotherapy and complete tumor removal has been found to significantly elevate survival chances. Disease recurrence remains a challenge and is influenced by treatment strategy. In conclusion, the diagnosis and treatment of UESL are fraught with challenges, particularly in adults. A multidimensional approach, combining various therapies, is paramount for better outcomes. Continuous research and enhanced awareness are crucial for improving diagnostic precision and treatment outcomes for UESL patients.

Unpacking the Racial Gap: Helicobacter pylori Infection Clearance Among Different Racial Groups.

Introduction Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is a bacteria causing chronic stomach infections, influenced by various factors, including host traits and bacterial virulence. It uses both urease-dependent and independent mechanisms to survive acidic gastric environments. Management entails diagnosis, treatment, and eradication verification. Combining drugs is key to overcoming resistance and ensuring bacteria elimination, thus preventing recurrence and complications. H. Pylori eradication mitigates gastric cancer risk and alleviates symptoms. Racial disparities persist despite declining H. pylori and gastric cancer incidence in the United States (US). African Americans (AA) have higher gastric cancer risks than non-Hispanic Whites. Addressing these disparities is crucial to protect high-risk populations. Methods This study retrospectively compiled H. pylori infection data from 2009 to 2022, categorized by race. Propensity score matching balanced initial group characteristics before analysis. Chi-squared and odds ratio tests were used on the cohort, with Kaplan Meier and Log Rank methods evaluating disease clearance in ethnic groups. Data were extracted from the Sunrise Electronic Medical Record software, including patient demographics, health details, and treatment specifics. Patients aged 18-65 with H. pylori infection at Nassau University Medical Center, who followed their treatment, were selected. Data were processed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) and RStudio software. Results The study initially included 10,040 H. pylori-diagnosed patients, with 9,288 meeting the study's criteria after attrition. Predominantly female (64.7%), the cohort was racially diverse. A longer disease clearance time was noted among Hispanics (p=0.044). Binomial logistic regression analysis identified influential factors like high school graduation rates, poverty level income, and language proficiency on disease clearance. An odds ratio analysis further emphasized language barriers (HR 0.346, p=0.043) and education status (HR 0.756, p=0.025) as primary covariates impacting disease clearance, underlining the role of socio-economic factors and language proficiency in health outcomes. Conclusion The study highlights racial disparities in H. pylori clearance rates, particularly among Hispanics, necessitating culturally sensitive interventions. It advocates for improved diagnostics, increased healthcare access, and social determinants of health-focused initiatives. It identifies socio-economic status and language proficiency as key factors impacting health outcomes, calling for actions to bridge these disparities. Addressing these differences can decrease healthcare inequalities and economic burden, improving overall health outcomes and reducing costs associated with H. pylori clearance.

Costs & outcomes of hospitalized scrub typhus infection in a tertiary hospital in south India.

Background & objectives: Scrub typhus is a rickettsial infection seen along the Asian-Pacific rim and imposes a considerable burden on affected people in low- and middle-income countries. The present study was aimed to determine the direct cost of hospitalization of scrub typhus and its trend over six years. Methods: This was a retrospective, observational, hospital based study of individuals admitted to the hospital, diagnosed with scrub typhus over six years, from January 2013 to December 2018. The potential out of pocket expenditure was evaluated. Results: A total of 198 patients were included in the study. The median cost of admission (adjusted to INR 2020) for the six years (2013 to 2018) was found to be ₹ 37,026 (US $ 490) [interquartile range (IQR) 22,996-64,992]. The median cost for patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) was ₹ 128,046 (US $ 1695) (IQR 71,575-201,171), while the cost for patients admitted to the ward-alone was ₹ 33,232 (US $ 440) (IQR 19,609-45,373). The multivariable analysis showed that ARDS and SOFA score were the independent predictors of ICU admission. Interpretation & conclusions: Hospitalisation for scrub typhus is associated with a substantial healthcare expense. The predictors of increased cost were the presence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), shock, increasing sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score and duration of hospital stay.

Navigating the Esophagus: Effective Strategies for Foreign Body Removal.

Foreign body ingestion is a common medical emergency that can affect individuals of all ages and can be caused by various factors, including accidental ingestion, psychiatric disorders, intellectual disabilities, and substance abuse. The most common site for foreign body lodgment is the upper esophagus, followed by the middle esophagus, stomach, pharynx, lower esophagus, and duodenum. This article provides a case report of a 43-year-old male patient with a history of schizoaffective disorder and an indwelling suprapubic catheter who presented to the hospital due to foreign body ingestion. After examination, a metal clip from his Foley catheter was found lodged in his esophagus. The patient was intubated for the procedure, and an emergent endoscopic removal was performed to remove the metallic Foley component. No postoperative complications were observed, and the patient was successfully discharged. This case highlights the importance of considering foreign body ingestion in patients with chest pain, dysphagia, and vomiting. Prompt diagnosis and treatment are crucial to prevent potential complications such as perforation or gastrointestinal tract obstruction. The article also emphasizes the need for healthcare providers to know the different risk factors, variations, and common sites for foreign body lodgment to optimize patient care. Furthermore, the article highlights the importance of multidisciplinary care involving psychiatry and surgery to provide comprehensive care to patients with psychiatric disorders who may be at higher risk for foreign body ingestion. In conclusion, foreign body ingestion is a typical medical emergency that requires prompt diagnosis and treatment to prevent complications. This case report highlights the successful management of a patient with foreign body ingestion and emphasizes the importance of multidisciplinary care to optimize patient outcomes.

The economic impact of a COVID-19 illness from the perspective of families seeking care in a private hospital in India.

Background: The Covid-19 pandemic had a tremendous impact that caused significant morbidity, mortality, and financial stress for families. Our study aimed to determine the Out-of-pocket expenses and economic impact of a Covid-19 illness for households where patients were admitted to a private hospital in India. Methodology: This was a cost-of-illness study from a tertiary care academic institute where adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from May 2020 to June 2021 were included. Patients with an admission of less than one day or who had any form of insurance were excluded. The clinical and financial details were obtained from the hospital information system and a cross-sectional survey. This was stratified across three clinical severity levels and two epidemiological waves. Results: The final analysis included 4445 patients, with 73 % admitted in Wave 1 and 99 patients interviewed. For patients with severity levels 1, 2 and 3, the median admission days were 7, 8 and 13 days respectively. The total cost of illness (general category) was $934 (₹69,010), $1507 (₹111,403) and $3611 (₹266,930) and the direct medical cost constituted 66%, 77% and 91% of the total cost for each level respectively. Factors associated with higher admission costs were higher age groups, male gender, oxygen use, ICU care, private admission, increased duration of hospital stay and Wave 2. The median annual household income was $3247 (₹240,000) and 36% of families had to rely on more than one financial coping strategies, loans with interest being the commonest one. The lockdown period affected employment and reduced income for a considerable proportion of households. Conclusion: A Covid admission of higher severity was a significant financial burden on families. The study reaffirms the need for collaborative and sustainable health financing systems to protect populations from hardships.$-US Dollar; ₹- Indian Rupees.

Trends in prevalence and determinants of severe and moderate anaemia among women of reproductive age during the last 15 years in India.

BACKGROUND: Anaemia is a serious global public health problem that disproportionally affects children, adolescent girls, and women of reproductive age, especially pregnant women. Women of reproductive age are more vulnerable to anaemia, particularly severe and moderate anaemia leads to adverse outcomes among pregnant women. Despite continuous Government efforts, anaemia burden still poses a serious challenge in India. The objective of this study is to assess the trends in prevalence and determinants of severe and moderate anaemia among women of reproductive age between 15 and 49 years. METHOD: We used three rounds of the large-scale National Family Health Survey (NFHS) India, conducted on a representative sample of households using a cross-sectional design across the country in 2005-06, 2015-16 and 2019-2021. We included all the women aged 15 to 49 years in our analysis. We used the same haemoglobin (Hb) cut-off values for all the three rounds of surveys to ensure comparability. Generalized linear regression analyses with log link were done. Survey weights were incorporated in the analysis. RESULTS: The prevalence of severe or moderate Anaemia (SMA) in non-pregnant women was 14.20%, 12.43% and 13.98%; it was 31.11%, 25.98% and 26.66% for pregnant women in 2006, 2016 and 2021 respectively. The decline in SMA prevalence was 1.54% in non-pregnant women, whereas it was 14.30% in pregnant women in 15 years. Women who were poor, and without any formal education had a higher risk for severe and moderate Anaemia. CONCLUSION: Despite the intensive anaemia control program in India, SMA has not declined appreciably in non-pregnant women during the last two decades. Despite the decline, the prevalence of SMA was about 26% in pregnant women which calls for a comprehensive review of the existing anaemia control programmes and there must be targeted programmes for the most vulnerable and high-risk women such as rural, poor and illiterate women of reproductive age to reduce the burden of anaemia among them.

The Path to Sustainable Healthcare: Implementing Care Transition Teams to Mitigate Hospital Readmissions and Improve Patient Outcomes.

Introduction Hospital readmissions within 30 days suggest care quality issues and increased mortality risks. They result from ineffective initial treatment, poor discharge planning, and inadequate post-acute care. These high readmission rates harm patient outcomes and financially strain healthcare institutions, inviting penalties and discouraging potential patients. Enhancing inpatient care, care transitions, and case management is crucial to lowering readmissions. Our research underscores the role of care transition teams in reducing readmissions and financial stress in hospitals. By consistently applying transition strategies and focusing on high-quality care, we can improve patient outcomes and ensure hospital success in the long run. Methods This two-phase study investigated readmission rates and risk factors in a community hospital from May 2017 to November 2022. Phase 1 determined a baseline readmission rate and identified individual risk factors using logistic regression. In phase 2, a care transition team addressed these factors by providing post-discharge patient support through phone calls and assessing social determinants of health (SDOH). Readmission data from the intervention period was compared to baseline data using statistical tests. Data, including demographics, medical conditions, and comorbidities, were collected via electronic medical records and the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10 codes). The study focused on patients aged 20-80 with readmissions within 30 days. Exclusions were made to minimize confounding effects from unmeasured comorbidities and ensure an accurate representation of factors affecting readmissions. Results In the study's initial phase, 74,153 patients participated, with an 18% mean readmission rate. Women accounted for 46% of readmissions, and the white population had the highest rate (49%). The 40-59 age group showed a higher readmission rate than other age groups, and certain health factors were identified as risk factors for 30-day readmission. In the subsequent phase, a care transition team intervened with high-risk groups using an SDOH questionnaire. They contacted 432 patients, resulting in a reduced overall readmission rate of 9%. The 60-79 age group and the Hispanic population experienced higher readmission rates, and the previously identified health factors remained significant risk factors. Conclusion This study emphasizes the crucial role of care transition teams in reducing hospital readmission rates and easing the financial strain on healthcare institutions. By identifying and addressing individual risk factors, the care transition team effectively lowered the overall readmission rate from 18% to 9%. Continually implementing transition strategies and prioritizing high-quality care focused on minimizing readmissions are essential for improving patient outcomes and long-term hospital success. Healthcare providers should consider utilizing care transition teams and social determinants of health assessments to better understand and manage risk factors and tailor post-discharge support for patients at higher risk of readmission.

Healthcare Disparities and Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Exploring the Linkages.

Introduction Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) refers to blood loss from a gastrointestinal (GI) source proximal or above the ligament of Treitz. Health equity means giving everyone an equal chance to achieve optimal health by addressing injustices, overcoming barriers, and eliminating health disparities. Healthcare providers must analyze racial and ethnic disparities in UGIB management to ensure all patients receive equal care. Identifying risk factors in specific populations leads to tailored interventions that improve outcomes. Our study aims to examine trends and identify disparities in upper gastrointestinal bleeding across races and ethnicities to promote health equity. Methods Retrospective data on upper gastrointestinal bleeding from June 2009 to June 2022 were collected and categorized into five groups based on race. The baseline characteristics of each group were matched to ensure equitable comparison. A joinpoint regression model was used to compare incidence trends, identifying potential healthcare disparities for different racial/ethnic groups over time. Patients aged 18-75 who suffered from upper gastrointestinal bleeding at Nassau University Medical Center in New York from 2010 to 2021 were selected, excluding those with incomplete baseline comorbidity information. Results This study examined 5103 cases of upper gastrointestinal bleeding, with 41.9% female. The cohort was diverse, with 29.4% African American, 15.6% Hispanic, 45.3% White, 6.8% Asian, and 2.9% of other races. Data were split into two groups; 49.9% occurred between 2009 and 2015 and 50.1% between 2016 and 2022. Findings showed increased UGIB among Hispanics and decreased bleeding among Asians during 2016-2021 compared to 2009-2015. However, no significant difference was found for African Americans, Whites, and other races. In addition, Hispanics had a rise in the annual percentage change (APC) rate, whereas Asians had a decrease. Conclusion Our study examined trends in upper gastrointestinal bleeding and potential healthcare disparities across races and ethnicities. Our findings highlight an increased incidence of UGIB in Hispanics and a decreased incidence in Asians. Additionally, we identified a significant increase in the annual percentage change rate in Hispanics and a decrease in Asians over time. Our study underscores the importance of identifying and addressing disparities in UGIB management to promote health equity. Future research can build on these findings to develop tailored interventions that improve patient outcomes.

Reduction in prevalence of spousal physical violence against women in India: evidence from three national surveys.

Spousal physical violence (PV) against women is considered to be major health issue in developing countries. Lifetime physical violence is a composite outcome consists of hit, kick, beat, slap and threatened with weapon, perpetrated by the husband. The study aims to examine changes in prevalence and specific risk factors for PV from 1998 to 2016 in India. This study analyzed data from a cross sectional epidemiological survey in 1998-1999, NFHS-3 (2005-2006) and NFHS-4 (2015-2016) data. There was a significant decline of about 10% (95% CI: 8.8%-11.1%) in PV. Major risk factors for change in PV were husband's use of alcohol, illiteracy and socio-economic status of the household. The Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act may have played a role in reducing the PV. Even though there was a decline in PV, actions have to be implemented from the root level to ensure women empowerment.

Investigating the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccines on Liver Function: Insights From a Single-Institute Study.

Introduction SARS-CoV-2 can cause respiratory and extrapulmonary complications, including liver injury. Therefore, understanding the virus's impact on the liver and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine's protective effect is crucial, given the correlation between hepatic involvement and disease severity. Our study aims to evaluate this relationship and the impact of vaccination on liver injury in COVID-19-infected patients. Methods A retrospective cohort study analyzed liver function outcomes in COVID-19-infected patients who received two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna mRNA vaccine from October 2019 to October 2021. The study population was matched based on baseline characteristics, and Fisher's T-test was used for analysis. Secondary outcomes included COVID-19-related death, hospital stay, and SARS-CoV-2 infection after the second dose. SPSS (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY) and RStudio (RStudio, PBC, Boston, USA) software were utilized to ensure robust statistical analysis. Results A group of 78 patients with a propensity score were matched and analyzed, resulting in two groups of 39 patients each: vaccinated and unvaccinated. The vaccinated group had a lower incidence of liver injury, reduced length of stay, and mortality. The study suggests that COVID-19 vaccination can positively impact infected patients. These findings should be considered when making decisions about vaccine distribution and usage, and more research is needed to fully understand the vaccine's impact on ending the pandemic. Conclusion This study emphasizes the COVID-19 vaccine's significance in reducing liver injury and related outcomes, such as length of stay and mortality in infected patients. The results provide further evidence of vaccination benefits, with implications for healthcare professionals and policymakers. Further research is needed to deepen our understanding of COVID-19's complex effects on the liver and the vaccine's impact. Investing in research can inform clinical management, improve patient outcomes, and ultimately help end the pandemic.

Development and validation of Daycare Anesthesia Satisfaction (DAS) questionnaire to assess patient's satisfaction with daycare anesthesia.

Background and Aims: The patient's satisfaction can be considered as a unique indicator of the quality of healthcare provided. The advantages of patient satisfaction surveys rely heavily on using standardized, psychometrically tested data collection approaches. There is a lack of a proper, psychometrically robust instrument to evaluate the patient's perioperative satisfaction following all types of anesthesia in daycare facility. Hence, this study aimed to develop a Daycare Anesthesia Satisfaction (DAS) questionnaire to measure the patient's satisfaction with the experience of daycare anesthesia services. Material and Methods: A preliminary pool of questions was generated from research literature, expert consultations, and pilot tested on patients. The internal consistency and reliability of the preliminary questionnaire was evaluated by calculating Cronbach's alpha, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), and feasibility with the formation of a final 27-item questionnaire. In the next step, the questionnaire was distributed to a larger group of patients in the phase 2 of postanesthesia care unit (PACU). The results were subjected to confirmatory factor analysis to determine the goodness of fit of the questions under each domain. Results: The internal consistency of the preliminary questionnaire as measured by Cronbach's alpha was 0.929. Intraclass correlation coefficient measured for test-retest reliability was 0.97 (95% confidence interval [CI]). Feasibility was confirmed, as 75% of the patients could fill the questionnaire within 15 min. In the second step of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), questionnaire has been shown to have goodness of fit with Bentler's comparative fit index (CFI) of 0.99 that is greater than the suggested cutoff of 0.90. The root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) of 0.09 is also close to the suggested cutoff of 0.06. Conclusion: This systematically developed and validated, 27-item DAS questionnaire can be tentatively recommended to be used to measure patient's satisfaction with day care anesthesia services following all types of surgical procedures, under various types of anesthesia.

Retrospective study of comparison of clinical severity and outcome of hospitalised COVID-19 patients during the first and second waves of the pandemic in India.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the clinical severity and outcome of hospitalised patients during the two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in India. SETTING: A tertiary care referral hospital in South India. PARTICIPANTS: Symptomatic SARS CoV-2 reverse transcriptase PCR positive patients presenting to the emergency department during the two waves were recruited. The first wave spanned between April and December 2020 and the second wave between April and May 2021. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome of interest was mortality. Secondary outcomes included illness severity at presentation, need for oxygen therapy, non-invasive ventilation (NIV) and hospital or intensive care unit admission. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age of the 4971 hospitalised patients in the first wave was similar to the 2293 patients in the second wave (52.5±15.4 vs 52.1±15.1 years, p=0.37). When compared with the first wave, during the second wave, a higher proportion of patients presented with critical illness (11% vs 1.1%, p<0.001) and needed supplemental oxygen therapy (n=2092: 42.1% vs n=1459: 63.6%; p<0.001), NIV (n=643; 12.9% vs n=709; 30.9%; p<0.001) or inotropes/vasoactive drugs (n=108; 2.2% vs n=77: 3.4%; p=0.004). Mortality was higher during the second wave (19.2% vs 9.3%; p<0.001). On multivariable regression analysis, age >60 years (risk ratio, RR 2.80; 95% CI 2.12 to 3.70), D-dimer >1000 ng/mL (RR 1.34; 95% CI 1.15 to 1.55), treatment with supplemental oxygen (RR 14.6; 95% CI 8.98 to 23.6) and presentation during the second wave (RR 1.40; 95% CI 1.21 to 1.62) were independently associated with mortality. CONCLUSION: The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India appeared to be associated with more severe presentation and higher mortality when compared with the first wave. Increasing age, elevated D-dimer levels and treatment with supplemental oxygen were independent predictors of mortality.

Impact of prior vaccination with CovishieldTM and Covaxin® on mortality among symptomatic COVID-19 patients during the second wave of the pandemic in South India during April and May 2021: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccines were authorised for emergency use to mitigate the impact of the pandemic. This study evaluated the effect of prior vaccination with either Oxford Astra Zeneca's Covishield™ or Bharath Biotech's Covaxin® on mortality among symptomatic COVID-19 patients during the second wave of the pandemic in India. METHODOLOGY: In this cohort study comprising of RT-PCR confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 patients presenting during April and May 2021, the effect of prior vaccination on mortality (primary outcome), need for hospitalization, oxygen therapy, non-invasive ventilation (NIV) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission were assessed and expressed as risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: The mean (SD) age of the cohort (n = 4183) was 46.3 (15.5) years; 17.9% (748/4183) had received at least one dose of Covishield™ and 4.8% (201/4183) had received Covaxin®. Mortality was 0.2% (95% CI: 0.2% - 0.7%), 3.5% (1.9-5.2%), 6.2% (0.3-12%) and 12.9% (11.8-14.1%) among fully vaccinated (>2 weeks after two doses), partially vaccinated (>2 weeks after one dose or <2 weeks after two doses), indeterminate (<2 weeks after one dose) and unvaccinated patients respectively. The difference in mortality among unvaccinated vs. fully vaccinated was 12.7% (95% CI: 11.4-13.9%), unvaccinated vs. partially vaccinated was 9.4% (7.4-11.4%) and unvaccinated vs. indeterminate vaccinated was 6.8% (0.8-12.7%). On adjusted analysis, as compared to unvaccinated patients, at least one dose of vaccine reduced the need for hospitalization (RR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.35-0.47), oxygen (0.33; 0.27-0.40), NIV (0.23; 0.17-0.32), ICU admission (0.18; 0.12-0.27) and mortality (0.18; 0.11-0.29). CONCLUSION: Among symptomatic COVID-19 patients, prior vaccination with Covishield ™ or Covaxin® impacted the severity of illness and reduced mortality during a period of widespread delta variant circulation. Full vaccination conferred greater protection than partial vaccination.

Factors associated with mortality among moderate and severe patients with COVID-19 in India: a secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: Large data on the clinical characteristics and outcome of COVID-19 in the Indian population are scarce. We analysed the factors associated with mortality in a cohort of moderately and severely ill patients with COVID-19 enrolled in a randomised trial on convalescent plasma. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of data from a Phase II, Open Label, Randomized Controlled Trial to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Convalescent Plasma to Limit COVID-19 Associated Complications in Moderate Disease. SETTING: 39 public and private hospitals across India during the study period from 22 April to 14 July 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Of the 464 patients recruited, two were lost to follow-up, nine withdrew consent and two patients did not receive the intervention after randomisation. The cohort of 451 participants with known outcome at 28 days was analysed. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Factors associated with all-cause mortality at 28 days after enrolment. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age was 51±12.4 years; 76.7% were males. Admission Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score was 2.4±1.1. Non-invasive ventilation, invasive ventilation and vasopressor therapy were required in 98.9%, 8.4% and 4.0%, respectively. The 28-day mortality was 14.4%. Median time from symptom onset to hospital admission was similar in survivors (4 days; IQR 3-7) and non-survivors (4 days; IQR 3-6). Patients with two or more comorbidities had 2.25 (95% CI 1.18 to 4.29, p=0.014) times risk of death. When compared with survivors, admission interleukin-6 levels were higher (p<0.001) in non-survivors and increased further on day 3. On multivariable Fine and Gray model, severity of illness (subdistribution HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.35, p<0.001), PaO2/FiO2 ratio <100 (3.47, 1.64-7.37, p=0.001), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio >10 (9.97, 3.65-27.13, p<0.001), D-dimer >1.0 mg/L (2.50, 1.14-5.48, p=0.022), ferritin ≥500 ng/mL (2.67, 1.44-4.96, p=0.002) and lactate dehydrogenase ≥450 IU/L (2.96, 1.60-5.45, p=0.001) were significantly associated with death. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of moderately and severely ill patients with COVID-19, severity of illness, underlying comorbidities and elevated levels of inflammatory markers were significantly associated with death. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CTRI/2020/04/024775.

Forecasting COVID-19 epidemic in India and high incidence states using SIR and logistic growth models.

BACKGROUND: Ever since the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak emerged in China, there has been several attempts to predict the epidemic across the world with varying degrees of accuracy and reliability. This paper aims to carry out a short-term projection of new cases; forecast the maximum number of active cases for India and selected high-incidence states; and evaluate the impact of three weeks lock down period using different models. METHODS: We used Logistic growth curve model for short term prediction; SIR models to forecast the maximum number of active cases and peak time; and Time Interrupted Regression model to evaluate the impact of lockdown and other interventions. RESULTS: The predicted cumulative number of cases for India was 58,912 (95% CI: 57,960, 59,853) by May 08, 2020 and the observed number of cases was 59,695. The model predicts a cumulative number of 1,02,974 (95% CI: 1,01,987, 1,03,904) cases by May 22, 2020. As per SIR model, the maximum number of active cases is projected to be 57,449 on May 18, 2020. The time interrupted regression model indicates a decrease of about 149 daily new cases after the lock down period, which is statistically not significant. CONCLUSION: The Logistic growth curve model predicts accurately the short-term scenario for India and high incidence states. The prediction through SIR model may be used for planning and prepare the health systems. The study also suggests that there is no evidence to conclude that there is a positive impact of lockdown in terms of reduction in new cases.

Modelling of reproduction number for COVID-19 in India and high incidence states.

BACKGROUND: Since the onset of the COVID-19 in China, forecasting and projections of the epidemic based on epidemiological models have been in the centre stage. Researchers have used various models to predict the maximum extent of the number of cases and the time of peak. This yielded varying numbers. This paper aims to estimate the effective reproduction number (R) for COVID-19 over time using incident number of cases that are reported by the government. METHODS: Exponential Growth method to estimate basic reproduction rate R0, and Time dependent method to calculate the effective reproduction number (dynamic) were used. "R0" package in R software was used to estimate these statistics. RESULTS: The basic reproduction number (R0) for India was estimated at 1.379 (95% CI: 1.375, 1.384). This was 1.450 (1.441, 1.460) for Maharashtra, 1.444 (1.430, 1.460) for Gujarat, 1.297 (1.284, 1.310) for Delhi and 1.405 (1.389, 1.421) for Tamil Nadu. In India, the R at the first week from March 2-8, 2020 was 3.2. It remained around 2 units for three weeks, from March 9-29, 2020. After March 2020, it started declining and reached around 1.3 in the following week suggesting a stabilisation of the transmissibility rate. CONCLUSION: The study estimated a baseline R0 of 1.379 for India. It also showed that the R was getting stabilised from first week of April (with an average R of 1.29), despite the increase in March. This suggested that in due course there will be a reversal of epidemic. However, these analyses should be revised periodically.